Recapitulation

The last time I was writting something here it was freezing cold outside and the world was buried by heavy white snow.
Today I left the house wearing a T-Shirt without feeling cold.

The reason why I haven't wrote something for so long is, because there wasn't much to tell.

But, a few things I like to tell you about this time. I won't tell you about the "millitant traffic circle fanatic", but about what I've learned and what I've done during the last month.

The last three weeks I spent with learning how to use Hibernate and tried to improve my JAVA skills. I think it worked bretty good. I am thinking about completly rebuilding my homepage. I just have to make a new one every now and then.
At the moment I have absolutly no idea what to do, but I think something will come to my mind sooner or later.

I also spent a few hours thinking about likeliness. I think there are three theories which you have to think about.

Murphy's law
If anything can go wrong, it will, and usually at the most inopportune moment.

increase likeliness
You just have to make something more likely until the likelyness is as high as it can be.

mathematical likeliness
If there are 2 possibilities, the chance for each of them to happen is 50%.

So Murphy's law tells us that the chance that something happens that should happen is 0%, according to the 'increasing likeliness' theorie the chance that something happens that should happen is 100% and the mathematic tells us that the chance that something happens that should happen is 100 diveded by the number of posibilities.

A simple example:

Flip a Coin - head or tail.
We bet on tail.

Murphy: 0%
increase: 100%
mathematic: (100/2)% => 50%

Avvarage: (0+100+50)/3 = 50%


Another example:

Throw a dice.
We bet on 6.

Murphy: 0%
increase: 100%
mathematic: (100/6)% => 16,6666666666666666666666666%

Avarage: 38,888888888888888888888888%

I will try to make some experiments with this and the tell you about this soon.